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2026-07 SoM for TAC - JDMc.pdf

inside 12.-IMM-State-of-the-Market-Report.zip

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Document date Jul 24, 2026

Retrieved 2026-07-24 12:01 UTC

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ERCOT market monitor's 2025 report: prices up 13.8% as gas costs jumped 61% claim 1 p. 1

…omac Economics © 2025 Potomac Economics Overview of 2025 State of the Market Report for ERCOT Presented to: ERCOT TAC Jeff McDonald, Ph.D. Director, ERCOT IMM Vice President, Potomac Economics July 29, 2026

ERCOT market monitor's 2025 report: prices up 13.8% as gas costs jumped 61% claim 2 p. 3

…mics Summary of market pricing trends • All-in price of electricity increased by only 13.8% despite 61% increase in the price of natural gas (YoY) • The implied heat rate (price of elect…

ERCOT market monitor's 2025 report: prices up 13.8% as gas costs jumped 61% claim 3 p. 3

…ase in the price of natural gas (YoY) • The implied heat rate (price of electricity divided by the price of gas) decreased by 28% (YoY) • Shortage pricing from the Operating R…

ERCOT market monitor's 2025 report: prices up 13.8% as gas costs jumped 61% claim 4 p. 7

…w 3,000 MW for 30-160 hours per year. • In 2025: - Average PRC was over 11,000 MW - PRC was only below 6,500 MW for 106 h…

ERCOT market monitor's 2025 report: prices up 13.8% as gas costs jumped 61% claim 5 p. 11

…elated to Reliability Unit Commitment • From 2017 through 2020 - Resource-hours committed through RUC per year ranged from 202 to 613 - The average startup time for resource…

ERCOT market monitor's 2025 report: prices up 13.8% as gas costs jumped 61% claim 6 p. 9

…9 © 2025 Potomac Economics ERCOT has argued that PRC is an inappropriate metric for assessing reliability • PRC measures the instantaneous volume…

ERCOT market monitor's 2025 report: prices up 13.8% as gas costs jumped 61% claim 7 p. 9

…d manifest through shortage conditions. Instead, the frequency of shortage conditions has dropped precipitously in recent years. - PRC includes capacity from out-of-mar…

ERCOT market monitor's 2025 report: prices up 13.8% as gas costs jumped 61% claim 8 p. 10

…es to operate the grid conservatively • Since Winter Storm Uri, ERCOT has established a “conservative operations” policy to maintain a high level of reserves on the grid at all times • These reserves are brought online eit…

ERCOT market monitor's 2025 report: prices up 13.8% as gas costs jumped 61% claim 9 p. 11

…tion rather than system-wide scarcity • One legitimate and growing challenge for ERCOT in using RUC appropriately is the (in)accuracy of the forecast for battery State of Charge

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